Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.011813 0.013355 0.015024 0.016964 0.019159 0.021564 0.024402
2025-11-02 0.009287 0.011392 0.013863 0.016977 0.020801 0.025348 0.031174
2025-11-09 0.007730 0.010027 0.012876 0.016673 0.021607 0.027812 0.036229
2025-11-16 0.006830 0.009275 0.012448 0.016874 0.022898 0.030833 0.042112
2025-11-23 0.006024 0.008510 0.011865 0.016734 0.023635 0.033094 0.047098
2025-11-30 0.005550 0.008124 0.011722 0.017132 0.025082 0.036380 0.053730
2025-12-07 0.004891 0.007393 0.011005 0.016612 0.025127 0.037629 0.057480
2025-12-14 0.004407 0.006862 0.010513 0.016351 0.025493 0.039327 0.061985
2025-12-21 0.003942 0.006311 0.009930 0.015882 0.025471 0.040398 0.065564
2025-12-28 0.003768 0.006194 0.010000 0.016427 0.027065 0.044081 0.073573
2026-01-04 0.003564 0.006006 0.009935 0.016736 0.028290 0.047249 0.080985
2026-01-11 0.003396 0.005861 0.009920 0.017121 0.029656 0.050735 0.089200
2026-01-18 0.003145 0.005557 0.009625 0.017015 0.030199 0.052916 0.095423
2026-01-25 0.002936 0.005309 0.009404 0.017018 0.030929 0.055479 0.102553
2026-02-01 0.002700 0.004991 0.009032 0.016714 0.031074 0.056998 0.107888
2026-02-08 0.002563 0.004840 0.008944 0.016915 0.032151 0.060275 0.116759
2026-02-15 0.002390 0.004608 0.008686 0.016775 0.032570 0.062353 0.123499
2026-02-22 0.002304 0.004532 0.008712 0.017174 0.034047 0.066535 0.134691
2026-03-01 0.002110 0.004231 0.008285 0.016652 0.033672 0.067101 0.138683
2026-03-08 0.001965 0.004013 0.008002 0.016391 0.033791 0.068634 0.144755
2026-03-15 0.001808 0.003760 0.007631 0.015921 0.033440 0.069187 0.148815
2026-03-22 0.001772 0.003752 0.007748 0.016467 0.035242 0.074283 0.162962
2026-03-29 0.001713 0.003691 0.007755 0.016777 0.036568 0.078479 0.175502